Publications

Forthcoming Papers

Jumpstarting an International Currency

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Forthcoming in the Review of Economic Studies

 

Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions

Xiao Yin

Forthcoming in the Journal of Finance

 

Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets: Recent Developments

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Economic Literature (2025), 63 (4), pp. 1191-1243

 

Jumpstarting an International Currency

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Forthcoming in the Review of Economic Studies

 

Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions

Xiao Yin

Forthcoming in the Journal of Finance

 

Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets: Recent Developments

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Economic Literature (2025), 63 (4), pp. 1191-1243

 

Investing in Lending Technology: IT Spending in Banking

Zhiguo He, Sheila Jiang, Douglas Xu and Xiao Yin

Forthcoming in Management Science

 

Recent Publications

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices

Francesco D’Acunto, Michael Weber, and Xiao Yin 

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

Security Design under Common-Value Competition​

Yue Yuan
Revise and Resubmit, Econometrica

Coordination and Fragility in Liquidity Provision

Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

Revise and Resubmit, the Review of Financial Studies

Dynamic Contracting with Flexible Monitoring

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory 

The Optimal Structure of Securities under Coordination Frictions

Dan Luo and Ming Yang

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

Q-Learning and Algorithmic Market Making: Loss-free, Collusive, or Competitive Prices?

Antonio Guarino, Philippe Jehiel and James Symons-Hicks

Higher Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Xiao Yin

Trading by Professional Traders: An Experiment

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Roberta De Filippis, Antonio Guarino, and Ryan Kendall

Extrapolation and Rational Inattention: Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds

Antonio Guarino, Gang Wang and Yang Yu

LASH risk and Interest Rates

 Saleem Bahaj, Laura Alfaro, Robert Czech, Joe Hazell and Ioana Neamtu

The Global Network of Liquidity Lines

Saleem Bahaj, Marie Fuchs and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of International Economics

The Market for Inflation Risk

Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Sitong Ding and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, American Economic Review

Share Issues versus Share Repurchases

 Philip Bond, Yue Yuan and Hongda Zhong

Security Design under Two-Sided Asymmetric Information

Yue Yuan

The Effects of Big Data on Commercial Banks

Xiao Yin

Beyond Bilateral Flows: Indirect Connections and Exchange Rates

Saleem Bahaj, Pasquale Della Corte, Daniele Massacci and Eduard Seyde

The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China's Parallel Currencies

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China's Parallel Currencies

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

Risk-taking with Financing Constraints

Wei Cui, Richard Cong Xie and Renbin Zhang

Organizations and Spontaneous Order in Mitigating Strategic Uncertainty

Liang Dai and Ming Yang

Futures Contracts and Imperfect Competition

Chen Lyu, Marzena J. Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

Risk Preferences at the Time of COVID-19: An Experiment with Professional Traders and Students

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino, Ryan Kendall, and Julen Ortiz De Zarate Pina

FRB of New York Staff Report, 927. 

Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous-time Markov models

Dennis Kristensen, Young Jun Lee, and Antonio Mele

Payments, Reserves, and Financial Fragility

Itay Goldstein, Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

Restoring Unanimity: The Role of Attention Allocation in Committee Decision-Making

Jidong Chen and Ming Yang

Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Political Science

Flexible Monitoring, Double Moral Hazard, and Fixed-Wage Contracts

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

What Determines How Banks Respond to Changes in Capital Requirements?

Saleem Bahaj, Jonathan Bridges, Frederic Malherbe and Cian O’Neill

Bank of England Working Paper No.593

Being Prosocial Does Not Pay (For Women): Gender Differences Arising from Social Norms

Antonio Cabrales, Ryan Kendall and Angel Sanchez

Decomposing Models of Bounded Rationality

Daniel Jessie and Ryan Kendall

The Value of Piped Water and Sewers: Evidence from 19th Century Chicago

Michael Coury, Toru Kitagawa, Allison Shertzer and Matthew Turner

von Mises-Fisher Distributions and Their Statistical Divergence

Toru Kitagawa and Jeff Rowley

Policy Choice in Time-Series by Empirical Welfare Maximization

Toru Kitagawa, Weining Wang and Mengshan Xu

Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret

Toru Kitagawa, Sokbae Lee and Chen Qiu

Insider Trading When There May Not Be an Insider

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

Endogenous Market Structure: Over-the-Counter versus Exchange Trading

Ji Hee Yoon

Privacy in Markets

Mariann Ollar, Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

The More Illiquid, The More Expensive: A Search-Based Explanation of Illiquidity Premium

Jaewon Choi, Jungsuk Han, Sean Seunghun Shin and Ji Hee Yoon

Strategic Sophistication and Trading Profits: An Experiment with Professional Traders

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino

FRB of New York Staff Report, 1044.

The Fragile Promise: Job Security and Contract Design under Partial Commitment

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, and Matthew Read

Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, and Matthew Read

Inference on Winners

Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

On Global Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressions

Emanuele Bacchiocchi and Toru Kitagawa

Constrained Classification and Policy Learning

Toru Kitagawa, Shosei Sakaguchi and Aleksey Tetenov

Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice

Takuya Ishihara and Toru Kitagawa

Testing Instrument Validity with Covariates

Thomas Carr and Toru Kitagawa

Paternalism, Autonomy, or Both? Experimental Evidence from Energy Saving Programs

Takanori Ida, Takunori Ishihara, Koichiro Ito, Daido Kido, Toru Kitagawa, Shosei Sakaguchi and Shusaku Sasaki

Government Bond Liquidity and Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages

Wei Cui, Sören Radde and Cristina Checherita-Westphal

Locally- But Not Globally-Identified SVARs

Emanuele Bacchiocchi and Toru Kitagawa

Cemmap Working Paper 40/20

Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Markets with Private Information

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

Estimation Under Ambiguity

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa and Harald Uhlig

Measurement Error and Rank Correlations

Toru Kitagawa, Martin Nybom and Jan Stuhler

Cemmap Working Paper 28/18

Stress Testing with Misspecified Models

Rhys Bidder, Raffaella Giacomini and Andrew McKenna

Market Discipline and Securitization

Frederic Malherbe

Auctions with Endogenous Initiation

Alexander Gorbenko and Andrey Malenko
The Journal of Finance (2024) 79(2): 1353–1403

 

Financial Product Design in Decentralized Markets

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Political Economy (2025), 133 (3), pp. 888-934.

 

Endogenous liquidity and capital reallocation

Wei Cui, Randall Wright and Yu Zhu
Journal of Political Economy (2025), 133(1), pp.146-189

 

An Issue Dedicated to Konrad Mierendorff: Introduction

Martin Cripps, Antonio Guarino and Vasiliki Skreta

European Economic Review (2025), 175, 105001

 

Douglas Gale’s Contribution to Social Learning, Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty, Monotone Games and Networks

Syngjoo Choi, Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino and Shachar Kariv

Journal of Financial Intermediation (2025), 62: 101141.

 

Taxing Sudden Capital Income Surges

Miao Jianjun and Wei Cui

IMF Economic Review (2025)

 

Two Engines, One Boom: Disentangling Credit's Real Effects

Wei Cui

International Economic Review (2025)

 

Conceptual Framework and Theory of M&A

Alex Gorbenko
Handbook of the Economics of Mergers and Acquisitions (2025), Edward Elgar

 

A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Journal of Political Economy (2024), 132(8), pp.2612-2654

 

Disclosure of Bank-Specific Information and the Stability of Financial Systems

Liang Dai, Dan Luo and Ming Yang
Review of Financial Studies (2024), 37(4), pp. 1315–1367 

 

Customer Data Access and Fintech Entry: Early Evidence from Open Banking

Tania Babina, Saleem Bahaj, Greg Buchak, Filippo De Marco, Angus Foulis, Will Gornall, Francesco Mazzola, and Tong Yu

Journal of Financial Economics (2025), 169, 103950.

 

The Cross-Border Effects of Bank Capital Regulation

Saleem Bahaj and Frederic Malherbe

Journal of Financial Economics (2024), 160, 103912.

 

Beyond Pangloss: Financial Sector Origins of Inefficient Economic Booms

Frederic Malherbe and Michael McMahon

Journal of Monetary Economics (2024), 145, 103558

 

Innovation in Decentralized Markets: Technology vs. Synthetic Products

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (2024), 16 (1), pp 63-109

 

Auctions with Endogenous Initiation

Alexander Gorbenko and Andrey Malenko
The Journal of Finance (2024) 79(2): 1353–1403

 

Financial Product Design in Decentralized Markets

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Political Economy (2025), 133 (3), pp. 888-934.

 

Endogenous liquidity and capital reallocation

Wei Cui, Randall Wright and Yu Zhu
Journal of Political Economy (2025), 133(1), pp.146-189

 

An Issue Dedicated to Konrad Mierendorff: Introduction

Martin Cripps, Antonio Guarino and Vasiliki Skreta

European Economic Review (2025), 175, 105001

 

Douglas Gale’s Contribution to Social Learning, Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty, Monotone Games and Networks

Syngjoo Choi, Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino and Shachar Kariv

Journal of Financial Intermediation (2025), 62: 101141.

 

Taxing Sudden Capital Income Surges

Miao Jianjun and Wei Cui

IMF Economic Review (2025)

 

Two Engines, One Boom: Disentangling Credit's Real Effects

Wei Cui

International Economic Review (2025)

 

Conceptual Framework and Theory of M&A

Alex Gorbenko
Handbook of the Economics of Mergers and Acquisitions (2025), Edward Elgar

 

A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Journal of Political Economy (2024), 132(8), pp.2612-2654

 

Disclosure of Bank-Specific Information and the Stability of Financial Systems

Liang Dai, Dan Luo and Ming Yang
Review of Financial Studies (2024), 37(4), pp. 1315–1367 

 

Customer Data Access and Fintech Entry: Early Evidence from Open Banking

Tania Babina, Saleem Bahaj, Greg Buchak, Filippo De Marco, Angus Foulis, Will Gornall, Francesco Mazzola, and Tong Yu

Journal of Financial Economics (2025), 169, 103950.

 

The Cross-Border Effects of Bank Capital Regulation

Saleem Bahaj and Frederic Malherbe

Journal of Financial Economics (2024), 160, 103912.

 

Beyond Pangloss: Financial Sector Origins of Inefficient Economic Booms

Frederic Malherbe and Michael McMahon

Journal of Monetary Economics (2024), 145, 103558

 

Innovation in Decentralized Markets: Technology vs. Synthetic Products

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (2024), 16 (1), pp 63-109

 

Social Learning with Partial and Aggregate Information: Experimental Evidence

Antonio Guarino, Elisa Cavatorta and Steffen Huck

Games and Economic Behavior (2024), 146, pp.292-307.

 

Capital Income Jumps and Wealth Distribution

Jess Benhabib, Wei Cui and Jianjun Miao
Quantitative Economics (2024), 15(4), pp.1197-1247

 

Optimal Accounting Rules, Private Benefits of Control, and Efficient Liquidation

Xu Jiang and Ming Yang

Management Science (2024), 70(9), pp. 6302-6314

 

Non-cognitive Skills at the Time of COVID-19: An Experiment with Professional Traders and Students

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino, Ryan Kendall, and Julen Ortiz De Zarate Pina

Quarterly Journal of Finance, 14(2)

 

Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel

Gareth Anderson, Saleem Bahaj, Matthieu Chavaz, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter

Review of Finance (2023), 27(3), pp. 851–887 

 

The Workings of Liquidity Lines between Central Banks

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

The Research Handbook of Financial Markets(2023), Chapter 5, pp. 102-124

 

The Workings of Liquidity Lines between Central Banks

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

The Research Handbook of Financial Markets(2023), Chapter 5, pp. 102-124

 

Central Bank Swaplines: Evidence on the Effect of the Lender of Last Resort

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Review of Economic Studies (2022), 89(4), pp.1654–1693

 

Coordination and Continuous Stochastic Choice

Stephen Morris and Ming Yang

Review of Economic Studies (2022), 89(5), pp.2687–2722

 

Venture Capital Contracts

Michael Ewens, Alexander Gorbenko and Arthur Korteweg

The Journal of Financial Economics (2022), 143(1), pp.131-158

 

Financial Transaction Taxes and the Informational Efficiency of Financial Markets: A Structural Estimation

Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino and Andreas Uthemann

Journal of Financial Economics (2022), 146(3), pp.1044-1072

 

Incentive-Driven Inattention

WP Gaglianone, R Giacomini, J Issler, V Skreta
Journal of Econometrics (2022), 231(1), pp.188-212

 

Ambiguity in Dynamic Contracts

Martin Szydlowski and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Economic Theory (2022), 199, 105229, pp.1-54

 

Employment and the Residential Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy

Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Gabor Pinter and Paolo Surico

Journal of Monetary Economics (2022), 131, pp.26-44

 

Robust Bayesian Inference in Proxy SVARs

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa and Matthew Read

Journal of Econometrics (2022) 228, pp.107-126

 

Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines over SIR Network

Toru Kitagawa and Guanyi Wang

Journal of Econometrics (2022), 232(1), pp.109-131

 

The Economics of Liquidity Lines between Central Banks

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Annual Review of Financial Economics (2022), 14, pp.57-74

 

Macroeconomic Effects of Delayed Capital Liquidation

Wei Cui

Journal of the European Economic Association (2022), 20(4), pp.1683–1742

 

Narrative Restrictions and Proxies

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, and Matthew Read

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2022), 40, 1415-1425

 

Uncertain Identification

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa and Alessio Volpicella

Quantitative Economics (2022), 13, pp.95-123

 

Decomposing Coordination Failure in Stag Hunt Games

Ryan Kendall

Experimental Economics (2022), 25, pp.1109–1145

 

Testing Identifying Assumptions in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs

Yoichi Arai, Yu‐Chin Hsu, Toru Kitagawa, Ismael Mourifié and Yuanyuan Wan

Quantitative Economics (2022), 13 (1), pp 1-28

 

Inference for Losers

Isaiah Andrews, Dillon Bowen, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

American Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings, 112, pp.635-642

 

The Pass-Through of Loan-Loss-Provisioning on Mortgage Lending: Evidence from a Regulatory Change

Mauricio Calani and Manuel Paillacar
Journal of Banking and Finance (2022), 135, 106359.
 

 

Exchange Design and Efficiency

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon
Econometrica (2021), 89, pp.2887-2928

 

Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-Identified Models

Raffaella Giacomini and Toru Kitagawa

Econometrica (2021), 89, pp.1519-1556

 

Quantitative Easing with Heterogeneous Agents

Wei Cui and Vincent Sterk

Journal of Monetary Economics (2021), 123, pp.68-90

 

Default Cycles

Wei Cui and Leo Kaas

Journal of Monetary Economics (2021), 117, pp.377-394

 

Inference after Estimation of Breaks

Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

Journal of Econometrics (2021), 224 (1), pp 39-59

 

The Identification Region of the Potential Outcome Distributions under Instrument Independence

Toru Kitagawa

Journal of Econometrics (2021), 225 (2), pp.231-253

 

Equality-Minded Treatment Choice

Toru Kitagawa and Aleksey Tetenov

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2021), 39 (2), pp. 561-574

 

Sequential Competitions with a Middle-Mover Advantage

Ryan Kendall

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (2021), 91, 101667

 

Do the Rules to Select Rules Matter? An Experimental Analysis of Voting Rule Selection

Kaisa Herne, Ryan Kendall, Katri Sieberg and Maria Maunula

Munich Social Science Review (2021), 4, pp.55-92

 

Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment

Marco Angrisani, Antonio Guarino, Philippe Jehiel and Toru Kitagawa

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (2021), 13(3), pp.163-197

 

Home Values and Firm Behaviour

Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter

American Economic Review (2020), 110(7), pp.2225-2270

 

Optimality of Debt under Flexible Information Acquisition

Ming Yang

The Review of Economic Studies (2020), 87(1), pp.487-536

 

The Forced Safety Effect: How Higher Capital Requirements Can Increase Bank Lending

Saleem Bahaj and Frederic Malherbe 
Journal of Finance (2020), 75(6), pp.3013-3053

 

Pipeline Risk in Leveraged Loan Syndication

Max Bruche, Frederic Malherbe, and Ralf Meisenzhal
Review of Financial Studies (2020), 33(12), pp.5660-5705

 

Sovereign Spreads in the Euro Area: Cross Border Transmission and Macroeconomic Implications

Saleem Bahaj

Journal of Monetary Economics (2020), 110, pp.116-135

 

Posterior Distribution of Nondifferentiable Functions

Toru Kitagawa, José Luis Montiel Olea, Jonathan Payne and Amilcar Velez

Journal of Econometrics (2020), 217 (1), pp 161-175

 

Optimal Capital Requirements over the Business and Financial Cycles

Frederic Malherbe
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2020), 12(3), pp.139-74

 

Heterogeneity, Inattention, and Bayesian Updates

R Giacomini, V Skreta, J Turen
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2020), 12(1), pp.282-309

 

Central Bank Swap Lines During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Covid Economics (2020), 2(8)

 

Decomposing Democracy: A Comment on “The Future Viability of the Dutch Democracy: A Model Case”

Ryan Kendall

Munich Social Science Review (2020), 3, pp.81-92

 

Optimal Incentive Contract with Endogenous Monitoring Technology

Anqi Li and Ming Yang

Theoretical Economics (2020), 15(3), pp.1135-1173

 

How Do Valuations Impact Outcomes of Asset Sales with Heterogeneous Bidders?

Alexander Gorbenko

The Journal of Financial Economics (2019), 131(1), pp.88-117

 

Financing Entrepreneurial Production: Security Design with Flexible Information Acquisition

Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

The Review of Financial Studies (2019), 32(3), pp.819-863

 

Search-based Endogenous Asset Liquidity and the Macroeconomy

Wei Cui and Sören Radde

Journal of the European Economic Association (2019), 18(5), pp.2221-2269

 

Mostly Harmless Simulations? Using Monte Carlo Studies for Estimator Selection

Arun Advani, Toru Kitagawa and Tymon Słoczyński

Journal of Applied Econometrics (2019), 34, pp.893-910

 

Who Should be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice

Toru Kitagawa and Aleksey Tetenov

Econometrica (2018), 86(2), pp.591-616

 

The Timing and Method of Payment in Mergers when Acquirers are Financially Constrained

Alexander Gorbenko and Andrey Malenko

The Review of Financial Studies (2018), 31(10), pp.3937-3978

 

Get Rid of Unanimity Rule: The Superiority of Majority Rules with Veto Power

Laurent Bouton, Aniol Llorente-Saguer, and Frederic Malherbe
Journal of Political Economy (2018), 126(1), pp.107-149.

 

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates

Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2018), 89, pp.5-22

 

Informational Contagion in the Laboratory

Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino, Giovanni Guazzarotti, Federico Tagliati and Sven Fischer

Review of Finance (2018), 22(3), pp.877-904

 

Bayesian Estimation of State Space Models Using Moment Conditions

Ronald Gallant, Raffaella Giacomini and Giuseppe Ragusa

Journal of Econometrics (2017), 201, pp.198-211

 

Unanimous Rules in the Laboratory

Laurent Bouton, Aniol Llorente-Saguer, and Frederic Malherbe
Games and Economic Behavior (2017), 102, pp.179-198.

 

Macroprudential Policy under Uncertainty

Saleem Bahaj and Angus Foulis

International Journal of Central Banking (2017), pp.119-154 

 

Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations

Carlo Altavilla, Raffaella Giacomini and Giuseppe Ragusa

 Journal of Applied Econometrics (2017), 32, pp.1055-1068

 

Aligning Democracy: A Comment on Bruno S. Frey’s

Ryan Kendall

Homo Oeconomicus (2017), 34, pp.243-251

 

Stress Induces Contextual Blindness in Lotteries and Coordination Games

Isabelle Brocas, Juan Carrillo and Ryan Kendall

Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience (2017), 11

 

Properties of Optimal Accounting Rules in a Signaling Game

Xu Jiang and Ming Yang

Journal of Accounting and Economics (2017), 63(2-3), pp.499-512

 

Money and Asset Liquidity in Frictional Capital Markets

Wei Cui and Sören Radde
American Economic Review (2016), 106(5), pp.496-502

 

Informed Seller with Taste Heterogeneity

F Koessler, V Skreta
Journal of Economic Theory (2016), 165, pp.456-471

 

Model Averaging in Semiparametric Estimation of Treatment Effects

Toru Kitagawa and Chris Muris

Journal of Econometrics (2016), 193(1), pp.271-289

 

Monetary-Fiscal Interactions with Endogenous Liquidity Frictions

Wei Cui
European Economic Review (2016), 98, pp.1-25

 

Modeling Corporate Defaults: Poisson Autoregressions with Exogeneous Covariates (PARX)

Agosto, G. Cavaliere, D. Kristensen and A. Rahbek
Journal of Empirical Finance (2016), 38, pp.640-663.

 

Business Cycle and Credit Risk Modeling with Jump Risks

B.G. Jang, Y. Rhee, and J. H. Yoon
Journal of Empirical Finance (2016), 39, pp.15-36.

 

Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

International Economic Review (2016), 57, pp.369-392

 

Crime, Punishment, and Evolution in an Adversarial Game

Michael McBride, Ryan Kendall, Maria D’Orsogna and Martin Short

European Journal of Applied Mathematics (2016), 27(3), pp.317-337

 

A Test for Instrument Validity

Toru Kitagawa

Econometrica (2015), 83(5), pp.2043-2063

 

Coordination with Flexible Information Acquisition

Ming Yang

Journal of Economic Theory (2015), 158, pp.721-738

 

ABC of SV: Limited Information Likelihood Inference in Stochastic Volatility Jump-Diffusion Models

M. Creel and D. Kristensen
Journal of Empirical Finance (2015), 31, pp.85-108.

 

Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

Annual Review of Economics (2015), 7, pp.207-229

 

Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
American Economic Review (2014), 104(1), pp.224-51

 

Self-fulfilling Liquidity Dry-ups

Frederic Malherbe
Journal of Finance (2014), 69, pp.947-970.

 

Strategic and Financial Bidders in Takeover Auctions

Alexander Gorbenko and Andrey Malenko

The Journal of Finance (2014), 69(6), pp.2513-2555

 

Theory-Coherent Forecasting

Raffaella Giacomini and Giuseppe Ragusa

Journal of Econometrics (2014), 182, pp.145-155

 

Bond Returns and Market Expectations

C. Altavilla, R. Costantini and R. Giacommini
Journal of Financial Econometrics (2014), 12, pp.708-729

 

Instrumental Variables Before and LATEr

Toru Kitagawa

Statistical Science (2014), 29(3), pp.359-362

 

CDS Auctions

Mikhail Chernov, Alexander Gorbenko and Igor Makarov

The Review of Financial Studies (2013), 26(3), pp.768-805

 

Financial Contagion in the Laboratory: The Cross-Market Rebalancing Channel

Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino and Gloria Gardenal
Journal of Banking and Finance (2013), 37(11), pp.4310-4326

 

Financial Contagion

Robert Kollmann and Frederic Malherbe
In: Gerard Caprio (ed.), Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability (2013), 2, pp.139-143

 

Criminal Defectors Lead to the Emergence of Cooperation in an Experimental, Adversarial Game

Maria D’Orsogna, Ryan Kendall, Michael McBride and Martin Short

PloS one (2013), 8(4), e61458

 

A Warp-Speed Method for Conducting Monte Carlo Experiments Involving Bootstrap Estimators

Raffaella Giacomini, Dimitris Politis and Halbert White

Econometric Theory (2013), 29, pp.567-589

 

Social Learning with Coarse Inference

Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (2013), 5(1), pp.147-174

 

Optimal Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection

T Philippon, V Skreta
American Economic Review (2012), 102 (1), pp.1-28

 

Testing Conditional Factor Models

A. Ang and D. Kristensen
Journal of Financial Economics (2012) 106, pp.132-156.

 

A Bayesian Approach to Experimental Analysis: Trading in a Laboratory Financial Market

Marco Cipriani, Riccardo Costantini and Antonio Guarino

Review of Economic Design (2012), 16(2), pp.175-191

 

Competition among Sellers in Securities Auctions

Alexander Gorbenko and Andrey Malenko

American Economic Review (2011), 101(5), pp.1806-1841

 

Adding and Subtracting Black-Scholes: A New Approach to Approximating Derivative Prices in Continuous Time Models

D. Kristensen and A. Mele
Journal of Financial Economics (2011), 102, pp.390–415.

 

How Useful Are No-Arbitrage Restrictions for Forecasting the Term Structure

A. Carriero and R. Giacommini
Journal of Econometrics (2011), 164, pp.21-34

 

An Analytic Valuation Method for Multivariate Contingent Claims with Regime-Switching Volatilities

Ji Hee Yoon, Bong-Gyu Jang and Kum-Hwan Roh
Operation Research Letters (2011), 39, pp.180-187

 

No-Trade in the Laboratory

Marco Angrisani, Antonio Guarino, Steffen Huck and Nathan Larson

The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics (2011), 11(1), pp.1-58

 

Aggregate Information Cascades

Antonio Guarino, Heike Harmgart and Steffen Huck

Games and Economic Behavior (2011), 73(1), pp.167-185

 

Temporary vs Permanent Shocks: Explaining Corporate Financial Policies

Alexander Gorbenko and Ilya A. Strebulaev

The Review of Financial Studies (2010), 23(7), pp.2591-2647

 

 

Analytic Valuation Formulas for Range Notes and an Affine Term Structure Model with Jump Risks

Bong-Gyu Jang and Ji Hee Yoon
Journal of Banking and Finance (2010), 34, pp.2132-2145

 

Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010), 25, pp.595-620

 

Bayesian Social Learning with Local Interactions

Antonio Guarino & Antonella Ianni

Games (2010), 1(4), pp.1-21

 

Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

Review of Economic Studies (2009), 76, pp.669-705

 

Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation

V Skreta, L Veldkamp
Journal of Monetary Economics (2009), 56(5), pp.678-695

 

Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
Journal of the European Economic Association (2009), 7(1), pp.206-233

 

Estimation of Partial Differential Equations with Applications in Finance

D. Kristensen
Journal of Econometrics (2008), 144, pp.392–408

 

Mixtures of T-Distributions for Finance and Forecasting

A. Gottschling, C. Haefke, R. Giacommini and H. White
Journal of Econometrics (2008), 144, pp.175-192

 

Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics (2008), 8(1)

 

Transaction Costs and Informational Cascades in Financial Markets

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2008), 68(3-4), pp.581-592

 

Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests

Gianni Amisano and Raffaella Giacomini

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2007), 25, pp.177-190

 

Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability

Raffaella Giacomini and Halbert White

Econometrica (2006), 74, pp.1545-1578

 

How Stable Is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?

Raffaella Giacomini and Barbara Rossi

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2006), 68, pp.783-795

 

Averting Economic Collapse and the Solipsism Bias

Antonio Guarino, Steffen Huck and Thomas Jeitschko

Games and Economic Behavior (2006), 57(2), pp.264-285

 

Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
American Economic Review (2005), 95(5), pp.1427-1443

 

Noise Trading in a Laboratory Financial Market: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino
Journal of the European Economic Association (2005), 3(2-3), pp.315-321

 

Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts

Raffaella Giacomini and Ivana Komunjer

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2005), 23, pp.416-431

 

Aggregation of Space-Time Processes

Raffaella Giacomini and Clive Granger

Journal of Econometrics (2004), 118, pp.7-26

 

Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach

A. Jeffrey, D. Kristensen O. Linton, T. Nguyen & P.C.B. Phillips
Journal of Financial Econometrics (2004), 2(2), pp.251–289.

 

Working Papers

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices

Francesco D’Acunto, Michael Weber, and Xiao Yin 

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

 

Security Design under Common-Value Competition​

Yue Yuan
Revise and Resubmit, Econometrica

 

Coordination and Fragility in Liquidity Provision

Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

Revise and Resubmit, the Review of Financial Studies

 

Dynamic Contracting with Flexible Monitoring

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory 

 

The Optimal Structure of Securities under Coordination Frictions

Dan Luo and Ming Yang

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

 

Q-Learning and Algorithmic Market Making: Loss-free, Collusive, or Competitive Prices?

Antonio Guarino, Philippe Jehiel and James Symons-Hicks

 

Higher Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Xiao Yin

 

Trading by Professional Traders: An Experiment

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Roberta De Filippis, Antonio Guarino, and Ryan Kendall

 

Extrapolation and Rational Inattention: Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds

Antonio Guarino, Gang Wang and Yang Yu

 

LASH risk and Interest Rates

 Saleem Bahaj, Laura Alfaro, Robert Czech, Joe Hazell and Ioana Neamtu

 

Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Choices

Francesco D’Acunto, Michael Weber, and Xiao Yin 

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

 

Security Design under Common-Value Competition​

Yue Yuan
Revise and Resubmit, Econometrica

 

Coordination and Fragility in Liquidity Provision

Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

Revise and Resubmit, the Review of Financial Studies

 

Dynamic Contracting with Flexible Monitoring

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory 

 

The Optimal Structure of Securities under Coordination Frictions

Dan Luo and Ming Yang

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Review

 

Q-Learning and Algorithmic Market Making: Loss-free, Collusive, or Competitive Prices?

Antonio Guarino, Philippe Jehiel and James Symons-Hicks

 

Higher Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Xiao Yin

 

Trading by Professional Traders: An Experiment

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Roberta De Filippis, Antonio Guarino, and Ryan Kendall

 

Extrapolation and Rational Inattention: Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds

Antonio Guarino, Gang Wang and Yang Yu

 

LASH risk and Interest Rates

 Saleem Bahaj, Laura Alfaro, Robert Czech, Joe Hazell and Ioana Neamtu

 

The Global Network of Liquidity Lines

Saleem Bahaj, Marie Fuchs and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of International Economics

 

The Market for Inflation Risk

Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Sitong Ding and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, American Economic Review

 

Share Issues versus Share Repurchases

 Philip Bond, Yue Yuan and Hongda Zhong

 

Security Design under Two-Sided Asymmetric Information

Yue Yuan

 

The Effects of Big Data on Commercial Banks

Xiao Yin

 

Beyond Bilateral Flows: Indirect Connections and Exchange Rates

Saleem Bahaj, Pasquale Della Corte, Daniele Massacci and Eduard Seyde

 

The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China's Parallel Currencies

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

 

The Anatomy of a Peg: Lessons from China's Parallel Currencies

Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

 

Risk-taking with Financing Constraints

Wei Cui, Richard Cong Xie and Renbin Zhang

 

Organizations and Spontaneous Order in Mitigating Strategic Uncertainty

Liang Dai and Ming Yang

 

Futures Contracts and Imperfect Competition

Chen Lyu, Marzena J. Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

 

Risk Preferences at the Time of COVID-19: An Experiment with Professional Traders and Students

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino, Ryan Kendall, and Julen Ortiz De Zarate Pina

FRB of New York Staff Report, 927. 

 

Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous-time Markov models

Dennis Kristensen, Young Jun Lee, and Antonio Mele

 

Payments, Reserves, and Financial Fragility

Itay Goldstein, Ming Yang and Yao Zeng

 

Restoring Unanimity: The Role of Attention Allocation in Committee Decision-Making

Jidong Chen and Ming Yang

Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Political Science

 

Flexible Monitoring, Double Moral Hazard, and Fixed-Wage Contracts

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

 

What Determines How Banks Respond to Changes in Capital Requirements?

Saleem Bahaj, Jonathan Bridges, Frederic Malherbe and Cian O’Neill

Bank of England Working Paper No.593

 

Being Prosocial Does Not Pay (For Women): Gender Differences Arising from Social Norms

Antonio Cabrales, Ryan Kendall and Angel Sanchez

 

Decomposing Models of Bounded Rationality

Daniel Jessie and Ryan Kendall

 

The Value of Piped Water and Sewers: Evidence from 19th Century Chicago

Michael Coury, Toru Kitagawa, Allison Shertzer and Matthew Turner

 

von Mises-Fisher Distributions and Their Statistical Divergence

Toru Kitagawa and Jeff Rowley

 

Policy Choice in Time-Series by Empirical Welfare Maximization

Toru Kitagawa, Weining Wang and Mengshan Xu

 

Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret

Toru Kitagawa, Sokbae Lee and Chen Qiu

 

Insider Trading When There May Not Be an Insider

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

 

Endogenous Market Structure: Over-the-Counter versus Exchange Trading

Ji Hee Yoon

 

Privacy in Markets

Mariann Ollar, Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

 

The More Illiquid, The More Expensive: A Search-Based Explanation of Illiquidity Premium

Jaewon Choi, Jungsuk Han, Sean Seunghun Shin and Ji Hee Yoon

 

Strategic Sophistication and Trading Profits: An Experiment with Professional Traders

Marco Angrisani, Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino

FRB of New York Staff Report, 1044.

 

The Fragile Promise: Job Security and Contract Design under Partial Commitment

Liang Dai, Yenan Wang and Ming Yang

 

Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, and Matthew Read

 

Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa, and Matthew Read

 

Inference on Winners

Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

 

On Global Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressions

Emanuele Bacchiocchi and Toru Kitagawa

 

Constrained Classification and Policy Learning

Toru Kitagawa, Shosei Sakaguchi and Aleksey Tetenov

 

Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice

Takuya Ishihara and Toru Kitagawa

 

Testing Instrument Validity with Covariates

Thomas Carr and Toru Kitagawa

 

Paternalism, Autonomy, or Both? Experimental Evidence from Energy Saving Programs

Takanori Ida, Takunori Ishihara, Koichiro Ito, Daido Kido, Toru Kitagawa, Shosei Sakaguchi and Shusaku Sasaki

 

Government Bond Liquidity and Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages

Wei Cui, Sören Radde and Cristina Checherita-Westphal

 

Locally- But Not Globally-Identified SVARs

Emanuele Bacchiocchi and Toru Kitagawa

Cemmap Working Paper 40/20

 

Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Markets with Private Information

Marzena Rostek and Ji Hee Yoon

 

Estimation Under Ambiguity

Raffaella Giacomini, Toru Kitagawa and Harald Uhlig

 

Measurement Error and Rank Correlations

Toru Kitagawa, Martin Nybom and Jan Stuhler

Cemmap Working Paper 28/18

 

Stress Testing with Misspecified Models

Rhys Bidder, Raffaella Giacomini and Andrew McKenna

 

Market Discipline and Securitization

Frederic Malherbe